Onwards

Onwards from AKQA on Vimeo.

You can't make this shit up

There will be no jumping the shark from here on...

Spending less on hookers = more money for toys

My old Trek 5200 Madone...

My New SCOTT ADDICT R2....

Bike Route & Running Route

Supplements

1. ForsLean®

Forslean is a standardized extract from the roots of the Coleus forskohlii plant which is a diterpenoid compound which directly activates adenylate cyclase (cAMP), Cyclic AMP is formed when a stimulatory hormone (e.g., epinephrine) binds to a receptor site on the cell membrane and triggers the activation of adenylate cyclase. The receptors on each cell are specific to the activating hormone. Forskohlin bypasses the hormone-receptor interactions and activates adenylate cyclase. Adenylate cyclase activation induces a rise in intracellular cAMP levels. Typically, an increase in cyclic AMP leads to subsequent activation of protein kinase. Protein kinase has been shown to activate the hormone sensitive lipase which is involved in the breakdown of triglycerides, known as building blocks of fatty tissue. Forskohlin influences thyroid stimulating action, comparable in strength to thyrotropin or TSH. The thyroid stimulating action of forskohlin may also contribute to the increase in the metabolic rate and thermogenesis. Forskohlin may also be involved in regulating insulin secretion. Insulin, although well recognized for its metabolism of carbohydrates, is also involved in the metabolism of fats and proteins that are major contributors to body composition.


2. EPA (Eicosapentaenoic Acid)/DHA (Docosahexaenoic Acid)

EPA & DHA are polyunsaturated fatty acids known as carboxylic acids. EPA as a precursor for prostaglandin-3 (which inhibits platelet aggregation), thromboxane-3, and leukotriene-5 groups (all eicosanoids). DHA is metabolized to form docosanoids—several families of potent hormone. DHA is found in three phospholipids: phosphatidylethanolamine, ethanolamine plasmalogens, and phosphatidylserine (PS). It modulates the carrier-mediated transport of choline, glycine, and taurine, the function of delayed rectifier potassium channels, and the response of rhodopsin contained in the synaptic vesicles, among many other functions. EPA can convert easily to DHA if required but DHA tends not to retro convert to EPA easily Benefits of EPA & DHA:
- improves fatty acid metabolism and energetics in muscle (fat loss)
- reverses many of the metabolic issues of insulin resistance and type II diabetes
- slows down ubinquination of cells and impedes less lysis (hypertrophic growth is more cells added over those broken down).
- causes neuronal repair
- it can be transported and can even cross the blood brain barrier, also acts protectively on long axon neurons in the spinal column.
- shown to be effective in liver lipid control (cholesterol control agent).
- control myoblast (early myocyte) differentiation
- upregulate cell production and slow down cell turnover
- proteasome activity (IkB-α protein expression, and NFkB DNA-binding activity) in serum.
- effect (change) on IL-6 and its role in mytostatin controls seems to be tied to control of ROS/Oxidative damage in the cells resulting from improved fatty acid metabolism and the oxygen free radicals that result

This is why you pay $2000 extra for 1st Class

USDA/WASDE 2009 Forcasts Report Tomorrow...

Four major reports will be released on Monday January 12: Crop Production, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, Winter Wheat Seedings and Quarterly Stocks of Grain. I expect a small downward revisions to US corn and soybean production; these are unlikely to change market tone, as near-term inventories remain comfortable. Few changes are expected to demand forecasts, and Q4 2008 stocks should reflect the recent trend of slackening domestic off take. I expect the USDA’s first estimates of winter wheat plantings should reflect a meaningful decline vs 2008 and cuts are widely expected, suggesting further price appreciation will be tied to future threats to yield.

Soybean Production should be 2.9 million bu
Soybean yield should be less that 42 bu/acre

Corn Production should be 12 million bu
Corn yield should be around 153 bu/acre

Soft Red Winter Wheat seedings 10 million acres
Hard Red Winter Wheat seedings 30 million ares
White Winter Wheat seedings 4 million acres

I will be a buyer of Wheat on any meaningful weakness after the report. Soybeans should also be bought on weakness, while I remain neutral on corn

Gartman's rules for making money in any market

W.R Grace (GRA)

W.R. Grace & Co.(GRA) is a specialty chemicals company who's principal activity is supplying catalysts and other products to petroleum refiners; catalysts for the manufacture of plastics; silica-based engineered and specialty materials for a wide-range of industrial applications; sealants and coatings for food and beverage packaging, additives, and building materials for commercial and residential construction. With annual sales of more than $3.1 billion, Grace has about 6,500 employees and operations in over 40 countries.

As baby Grace awaits final approval of its plan of reorganization and its emergence from chapter 11, the stock has been hammered. W.R Grace is a specialty chemicals company specializing in catalysts. They compete with BASF (BASFY) and Albemarle (ALB) who would could try to acquire W.R. Grace once the asbestos settlement is finalized. I expect Grace to trade at an EV/EBITDA 6x. With the economy setting up to rebound in the second half of 2009 W.R. Grace is capable of doing 600mm in EBITDA. Sales of catalysts and silica alumina products have been growing steadily in double digits for the last several years. With a strong recovery in the global economy its not unreasonable to think Grace can be a $50 stock within the next couple of years

Grace Davison
-BioFuel Technologies
-Refining Technologies
-Advanced Refining Technologies
-Materials & Packaging Technologies
-Darex Packaging Technologies
-Specialty Catalysts & Process Technologies
-Discovery Sciences

Grace Construction Products
-Construction Products
-Specialty Building Materials

OM Group (OMG)

OM Group, Inc. OMG is the world's leading producer of cobalt-based specialty chemicals. OMG operates in two divisions specialty chemicals and advanced materials that offer chemicals and materials essential to complex industrial processes. Key technology-based end-use applications include affordable energy, portable power, clean air, clean water and proprietary products and services for the microelectronics industry. Cobalt is a metal with unique properties and usage. Below is a chart of annual cobalt consumption by region and market.
The Advanced Materials segment manufactures inorganics products using unrefined cobalt and other metals and serves the battery, powder metallurgy, ceramic and chemical end markets by providing functional characteristics critical to the success of industrial products. These products improve the electrical conduction of rechargeable batteries used in cellular phones, video cameras, portable computers, power tools and hybrid electrical vehicles, and also strengthen and add durability to diamond and machine cutting tools and drilling equipment use in construction, oil and gas drilling, and quarrying.

The Specialty Chemicals segment consists of the following:

Electronic Chemicals
Electronic Chemicals develops products for the electronic packaging, memory disk, general metal finishing and printed circuit board finishing markets and includes the REM Printed Circuit Board (“PCB”) business. The acquired PCB business develops and manufactures chemicals for the printed circuit board industry, such as oxide treatments, electroplating additives, etching technology and electroless copper processes used in the manufacturing of printed circuit boards widely used in computers, communications, military/aerospace, automotive, industrial and consumer electronics applications. Memory disk products include electroless nickel solutions and preplate chemistries for the computer and consumer electronics industries and for the manufacture of hard drive memory disks used for memory and data storage applications. Memory disk applications include computer hard drives, digital video recorders, MP3 players, digital cameras and business and enterprise servers.
Ultra Pure Chemicals:
Ultra Pure Chemicals (“UPC”) develops and manufactures a wide range of ultra-pure chemicals used in the manufacture of electronic and computer components such as semiconductors, silicon chips, wafers and liquid crystal displays. These products include chemicals used to remove controlled portions of silicon and metal, cleaning solutions, photoresist strippers, which control the application of certain light-sensitive chemicals, edge bead removers, which aid in the uniform application of other chemicals, and solvents. UPC also develops and manufactures a broad range of chemicals used in the manufacturing of photomasks and provides a range of analytical, logistical and development support services to the semiconductor industry. These include total chemicals management, under which the Company manages the clients’ entire electronic process chemicals operations, including coordination of logistics services, development of application-specific chemicals, analysis and control of customers’ chemical distribution systems and quality audit and control of all inbound chemicals.
Photomasks:
Photomasks manufactures photo-imaging masks (high-purity quartz or glass plates containing precision, microscopic images of integrated circuits) and reticles for the semiconductor, optoelectronics and microelectronics industries under the Compugraphics brand name. Photomasks are a key enabling technology to the semiconductor and integrated circuit industries and perform a function similar to that of a negative in conventional photography.
Advanced Organics:
Advanced Organics offers products for the tire, coating and inks, additives and chemical markets. These products promote adhesion of metal to rubber in tires and faster drying of paints, coatings, and inks. Within the additives and chemical markets, these products catalyze the reduction of sulfur dioxide and other emissions and also accelerate the curing of polyester resins found in reinforced fiberglass. The Borchers acquisition, which has been integrated into Advanced Organics, offers products to enhance the performance of coatings and ink systems from the production stage through customer end use.
OMG trades with the price of cobalt which the company both sells and uses as an input to the chemicals it produces. The change in price of cobalt has a significant effect on OMG's earnings per share but less of an impact on free cash flow, This results from FIFO accounting of cobalt inventory(non-cash). OMG is virtually debt free thanks to the sale of its nickel business in which proceeds were used to pay down debt. With a book value of over $37 per share, OMG is trading at an estimated 2008 EV/EBITDA 2.5x using $750mm EV, estimated $300mm EBITDA. Looking at 2009 estimates its difficult to estimate EPS based on the volatility in the price of cobalt. Assuming sales expectations remain the table below shows the Cobalt Price Impact to EPS vs FCF (No FIFO adjustment) OMG is a unique company with market leading positions in high growth markets. The fact that it has an integrated cobalt production operation gives OMG a unique competitive advantage. OMG makes money in even low price cobalt environment by producing cobalt (vs. buying it in open market transactions)

Pigs...